Prediction · What changes
Driverless transport will run as public service in many more cities worldwide, spreading city by city.
Medium termMedium confidenceOpen
Why we think so
Driverless rides have been open to the public since 2020 and have expanded to more cities. The pattern is slow, evidence-led growth.
What would prove us wrong
Major safety failures leading regulators to stop public driverless service.
- Horizon
- Medium term. About 3 to 10 years out.
- Confidence
- Medium confidence
- Status
- Open. Not yet decided either way.
- Made
- 21 October 2026
- Research programs
- Safety and human control
- Sectors
- Transport and cities
The evidence it rests on
Public results from teams around the world. Read the sources and judge for yourself.
· Waymo
Driverless ride-hailing open to the public
Waymo began offering fully driverless rides to the public in Phoenix and has since expanded to more US cities.
What it means for AGI: physical AI reaches daily life slowly, city by city, after years of testing and safety evidence.
Source: waymo.com(opens external site)
Think we are wrong?
Send us the evidence. If it changes our view, we update the prediction and say why.