Predictions
What we predict
Our view, not fact. Each prediction has a time horizon, a confidence level, the public evidence it rests on and what would prove us wrong. We review them as new results appear. How we predict.
On the road to AGI
What we expect AI systems to be able to do next, and how we think AGI will be reached.
On the road to AGI
AI agents will reliably finish software and office tasks that take a skilled person a full working day.
Near termMedium confidenceOn track
On the road to AGI
Claims that AGI has arrived will stay disputed until systems show reliable, long-running work in open real-world settings, not only benchmark scores.
Near termMedium confidenceOpen
On the road to AGI
The main way to measure progress toward AGI will shift from fixed tests to long, interactive and real-world work, because fixed tests now saturate within months.
Near termHigh confidenceOpen
On the road to AGI
The next large survey of AI researchers will put the 50% date for AI outperforming humans at every task earlier than 2047.
Near termMedium confidenceOpen
On the road to AGI
Open standards for connecting agents to tools and to each other will become as common for agents as web standards are for websites.
Near termMedium confidenceOpen
On the road to AGI
Advanced AI systems will keep learning after they are deployed, with long-term memory as a standard part, instead of staying frozen after training.
Medium termLow confidenceOpen
On the road to AGI
Electricity and compute, more than ideas, will be the main limit on how fast AI capabilities grow over the next decade.
Medium termMedium confidenceOpen
On the road to AGI
Checking work, not producing it, will become the main limit on how much we can trust autonomous AI.
Medium termMedium confidenceOn track
On the road to AGI
AGI will arrive as a system, not a single model: models, tools, memory, verification and many cooperating agents working together.
Long termMedium confidenceOn track
On the road to AGI
AI will match people at learning genuinely new tasks from a few examples, at a similar cost, which we see as one of the last clear gaps before AGI.
Long termLow confidenceOn track
What changes
What we expect to change in each sector as these abilities arrive.
What changes
Most routine software maintenance, such as fixing bugs and updating code, will be done by agents and reviewed by people.
Near termMedium confidenceOn track
What changes
AI agents will become central to both cyber attacks and cyber defence, and AI-assisted incidents will become routine news.
Near termHigh confidenceOpen
What changes
Demand for early-career workers in the most AI-exposed jobs will keep falling, while experienced workers in the same jobs hold steady.
Near termMedium confidenceOpen
What changes
Most students with internet access will have an AI tutor that explains and guides rather than giving answers.
Near termMedium confidenceOn track
What changes
A medicine whose target and molecule were found mainly with AI will be approved for patients by a major regulator.
Medium termMedium confidenceOpen
What changes
Machine-learning models will become a standard part of national weather forecasting, including warnings for extreme weather.
Medium termMedium confidenceOpen
What changes
Driverless transport will run as public service in many more cities worldwide, spreading city by city.
Medium termMedium confidenceOpen
What changes
AI will support diagnosis and triage in places with too few doctors, always under a clinician's oversight.
Medium termLow confidenceOpen
What changes
Governments will set audit and accountability rules for AI before using it widely in public services.
Medium termLow confidenceOpen
What changes
General-purpose humanoid robots will do paid work in factories years before they are useful in ordinary homes.
Medium termHigh confidenceOpen
What changes
AI systems will run whole cycles of research in narrow fields, from hypothesis to experiment design to analysis, with scientists approving each step.
Medium termMedium confidenceOn track