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SUPREME AI AGI

Prediction · What changes

Most students with internet access will have an AI tutor that explains and guides rather than giving answers.

Near termMedium confidenceOn track

Why we think so

AI tutors designed to guide rather than answer are already in classrooms (Khanmigo). Cost is falling fast. The harder part is design: tutors that teach instead of doing the work.

What would prove us wrong

Schools mostly banning AI tutors, or tutors mainly used to copy answers.

Review notes

21 October 2026: A World Bank randomised trial found large learning gains from guided AI tutoring in Nigeria. The AI Index 2026 reports four in five US high-school and college students use AI for schoolwork, but only half of schools have AI policies, so tutoring rather than copying is not yet assured.

Horizon
Near term. Within about 3 years of the date the prediction was made.
Confidence
Medium confidence
Status
On track. New evidence points the way we predicted.
Made
21 October 2026
Last reviewed
21 October 2026
Research programs
Safety and human control
Sectors
Education

The evidence it rests on

Public results from teams around the world. Read the sources and judge for yourself.

  • · Khan Academy

    AI tutors in classrooms

    Khan Academy launched Khanmigo, an AI tutor designed to guide students to answers instead of giving them away.

    What it means for AGI: a capable system can be shaped to teach rather than replace thinking. Design choices matter as much as capability.

    Source: khanmigo.ai(opens external site)

  • · World Bank

    AI tutoring trial in Nigeria shows large learning gains

    A randomised trial in Edo State used an AI model as an after-school English tutor for six weeks. Students gained 0.31 standard deviations overall, which the authors equate to 1.5 to 2 years of usual schooling.

    What it means for AGI: guided AI tutoring can work in low-resource settings, not only in rich countries.

    Source: openknowledge.worldbank.org(opens external site)

  • · Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI

    AI Index 2026: capabilities jump, but unevenly

    Agent success on Terminal-Bench rose from 20% to 77.3% in a year, and agents solved 93% of cybersecurity tasks, yet robots succeeded at only 12% of real household tasks. AI data-centre power capacity reached 29.6 GW, and four in five US students use AI for schoolwork.

    What it means for AGI: digital abilities are racing ahead while physical abilities and governance lag.

    Source: hai.stanford.edu(opens external site)

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