Prediction · What changes
Governments will set audit and accountability rules for AI before using it widely in public services.
Why we think so
International bodies are publishing principles before wide use, and independent trackers like the AI Index follow policy as closely as performance.
What would prove us wrong
Wide use of AI in public decisions without any audit or appeal process.
Review notes
21 October 2026: The EU AI Act became generally applicable in August 2026, but high-risk deadlines (which cover many public uses) were moved to 2027 and 2028. Most frontier risk management is still voluntary. Mixed so far.
- Horizon
- Medium term. About 3 to 10 years out.
- Confidence
- Low confidence
- Status
- Open. Not yet decided either way.
- Made
- 21 October 2026
- Last reviewed
- 21 October 2026
- Research programs
- Safety and human control
- Sectors
- Public services
The evidence it rests on
Public results from teams around the world. Read the sources and judge for yourself.
· World Health Organization
WHO guidance on ethics and governance of AI for health
The WHO set out principles for AI in health, including protecting human autonomy, transparency and accountability.
What it means for AGI: rules for AI in high-stakes fields are arriving alongside the technology, and any general system must work within them.
Source: who.int(opens external site)
· Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI
AI Index: the yearly state of AI
An independent yearly report tracking AI research, performance, investment, policy and public opinion around the world.
What it means for AGI: a shared, independent record of progress we use to check our own predictions.
· European Commission
EU AI Act: the first broad AI law, applying in stages
The Act entered into force on 1 August 2024. Prohibitions applied from February 2025, general-purpose AI obligations from August 2025, and the Act became generally applicable in August 2026; some high-risk deadlines were later moved to 2027 and 2028.
What it means for AGI: binding rules for general-purpose AI now exist in a major economy, though their timing keeps shifting.
· Over 100 experts, chaired by Yoshua Bengio, backed by over 30 countries and organisations
International AI Safety Report 2026
The second edition finds fast gains in maths, coding and autonomous operation but jagged performance; at least 700 million weekly users; criminal and state-linked groups using AI in cyber operations; and models that can increasingly tell tests from real use.
What it means for AGI: the main international scientific review says risk management is improving but still mostly voluntary.
Source: internationalaisafetyreport.org(opens external site)
Think we are wrong?
Send us the evidence. If it changes our view, we update the prediction and say why.