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SUPREME AI AGI

Prediction · What changes

Demand for early-career workers in the most AI-exposed jobs will keep falling, while experienced workers in the same jobs hold steady.

Near termMedium confidenceOpen

Why we think so

Payroll data show relative declines for workers aged 22 to 25 in exposed jobs; the AI Index reports nearly 20% fewer software developers in that age group since 2024; the International AI Safety Report sees similar early signs. Tasks given to juniors are the ones agents now do.

What would prove us wrong

Entry-level employment in exposed jobs recovering to its earlier trend while AI use keeps growing.

Horizon
Near term. Within about 3 years of the date the prediction was made.
Confidence
Medium confidence
Status
Open. Not yet decided either way.
Made
21 October 2026
Research programs
Long-horizon autonomy

The evidence it rests on

Public results from teams around the world. Read the sources and judge for yourself.

  • · Stanford Digital Economy Lab (Brynjolfsson, Chandar and Chen)

    Early-career jobs fall in the most AI-exposed occupations

    Using payroll data, the authors find a relative employment decline for workers aged 22 to 25 in the most AI-exposed jobs, while older workers in the same jobs held steady or grew. They call it early evidence.

    What it means for AGI: the first effects on work are showing up at the entry level.

    Source: digitaleconomy.stanford.edu(opens external site)

  • · Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI

    AI Index 2026: capabilities jump, but unevenly

    Agent success on Terminal-Bench rose from 20% to 77.3% in a year, and agents solved 93% of cybersecurity tasks, yet robots succeeded at only 12% of real household tasks. AI data-centre power capacity reached 29.6 GW, and four in five US students use AI for schoolwork.

    What it means for AGI: digital abilities are racing ahead while physical abilities and governance lag.

    Source: hai.stanford.edu(opens external site)

  • · Over 100 experts, chaired by Yoshua Bengio, backed by over 30 countries and organisations

    International AI Safety Report 2026

    The second edition finds fast gains in maths, coding and autonomous operation but jagged performance; at least 700 million weekly users; criminal and state-linked groups using AI in cyber operations; and models that can increasingly tell tests from real use.

    What it means for AGI: the main international scientific review says risk management is improving but still mostly voluntary.

    Source: internationalaisafetyreport.org(opens external site)

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